The independence thesis just got a live data point: as of 2026-08-03, AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb are reportedly in talks on a $400 billion merger (impact score 74, surprise score 80 out of 100 per SignalPlay event data). That is not bankruptcy, but it is precisely the loss-of-independence scenario the author sketches. Smart money conviction on BMY sits at 0.3 out of 100, with only 5 conviction holders, the largest being Dodge & Cox at 0.2% of book — barely a rounding error. Institutional ownership is 83.9% headline, but active conviction is just 2.28%. The sophisticated money is not fighting for this company.
There’s a publication called The Medical Letter. It’s for US and Canadian physicians. It evaluates drugs as they come to market. Even without a subscription, you can do a search. I did a search on BMS. There’s been a marked drop off in articles referencing BMS drugs over the past 10 years. All this at a time where, because of monoclonal antibody technology, drugs coming to market have probably increased. I did not compare other drug companies, like Lilly, Merck, Pfizer, GSK, etc.
Thanks for the insights, John. Assuming that your thesis is correct, where do you see the stock value in the next 6 months, 1 year and 1.5-year timeframe??
Short SMMT?
Y
Servicing v repaying
Honestly reckon it’s everywhere. Reminds me of the late 80’s early 90’s here with the so called entrepreneurs.
The independence thesis just got a live data point: as of 2026-08-03, AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb are reportedly in talks on a $400 billion merger (impact score 74, surprise score 80 out of 100 per SignalPlay event data). That is not bankruptcy, but it is precisely the loss-of-independence scenario the author sketches. Smart money conviction on BMY sits at 0.3 out of 100, with only 5 conviction holders, the largest being Dodge & Cox at 0.2% of book — barely a rounding error. Institutional ownership is 83.9% headline, but active conviction is just 2.28%. The sophisticated money is not fighting for this company.
excellent weaving of background into specific action.
please continue sidenotes as to impact on major partners (e.g. bntx)
There’s a publication called The Medical Letter. It’s for US and Canadian physicians. It evaluates drugs as they come to market. Even without a subscription, you can do a search. I did a search on BMS. There’s been a marked drop off in articles referencing BMS drugs over the past 10 years. All this at a time where, because of monoclonal antibody technology, drugs coming to market have probably increased. I did not compare other drug companies, like Lilly, Merck, Pfizer, GSK, etc.
Thanks for the insights, John. Assuming that your thesis is correct, where do you see the stock value in the next 6 months, 1 year and 1.5-year timeframe??
Short the bonds as well?
We are - but we do not expect that short to pay. CDS was like 29bps - which was irresistable.
29bps how far out?
This is the most interesting and telling bit for those playing at home.