China Media Express: all will be revealed
China Media Express (Nasdaq:CCME) has been my favorite drama on Wall Street (see posts here and here and here).
The stock is now suspended without news. We do not even know who called for the suspension.
It is time for the big reveal...
Just to amuse you though I want to run you through an email exchange I had with Snowball - the anonymous blogger at "Good Stock Bad Stock". I read his blog irregularly.
You see Snowball is a self-confessed "beginner" value investor - but he managed to write a seemingly balanced piece on CCME. He then suggested he was going long. So out of the kindness I wrote him a letter to try and convince him out of it.
This is how it ended:
You wrote an ambivalent piece on CCME. I am not sure there is much to be ambivalent about there. Indeed your idea that you might find 10 of these - half will be frauds - and you will be up is a first cut.
But can I put it another way. Taleb argues that you flip a coin 50 times and it comes back heads 50 times. You then ask a mathematician what it will be on the 51st throw. The mathematician says it should be 50 percent heads, 50 percent tails. After all probability is uninfluenced by prior events.
The trader is more canny. He says it will be heads. The coin is rigged.
Of course the trader is right.
Now have a look at the overlap between S-Chip scandals and CCME. And ask yourself whether your 50-50 guess is right.
You know what I think: the coin is rigged.
Snowball I think heeded the advice. I think Snowball owes me - but I guess we find out today!
John